Automation has already fundamentally changed the employment landscape, and even bigger impacts are coming. But just how extensive will future job losses be from intelligent machines taking over human work? The projections are startling.
Automation Could Displace Up to 800 Million Jobs by 2030
Here are some statistics that quantify the scale of impending job losses worldwide due to automation:
- 63 million jobs could be automated away by 2040 according to projections by Oxford Economics. That‘s around 20% of jobs worldwide.
- An estimated 1.7 million manufacturing positions have already been eliminated due to automation since 2000.
- Leading experts forecast automation could displace 400 million to 800 million jobs globally by 2030. Somewhere from 13% to 26% of the worldwide workforce.
Projected global job losses from automation by 2030. Source: McKinsey & Company
These staggering figures make it clear that automation will truly disrupt labor markets over the next decade. Entire occupations may be restructured or eliminated, forcing workers to switch careers and develop new skills to remain employed.
Manufacturing and Retail Industries Most Threatened
Certain industries face much higher risks of job automation than others.
- In the manufacturing sector, industrial robots have already erased over 1 million production jobs worldwide since 2000. Auto manufacturing plants in particular are rapidly automating assembly lines.
- The retail industry looks poised for major labor force disruption as cashiers and salespeople are displaced by self-checkout stations and retail stocking robots. As many as 1.5 million retail jobs in the US are vulnerable over the next decade.
- Food service jobs, especially fast food preparation and serving positions, are increasingly being automated with self-order kiosks and robotic burger flippers like Flippy.
- Transportation and warehouse jobs will come under pressure as self-driving technology matures. Autonomous trucks could displace over 100,000 US trucking jobs annually starting in the 2020s.
Young and Low-Skill Workers Most at Risk
Certain demographics face elevated risks of job automation, especially:
- Young workers (18-34 years old) are most likely to hold the low-skill jobs commonly disrupted by automation. Workers with less experience and seniority also have less security.
- Workers without college degrees typically hold more routine occupations that are readily automated. Those with higher education tend to have roles requiring advanced skills like critical thinking.
- Low-wage earners in positions like food service, production, transportation, and warehousing are highly vulnerable as companies seek to cut costs through automation.
- Women hold a disproportionate share of clerical and administrative support positions sensitive to automation. However, men are overrepresented in heavy-automation manufacturing roles.
Preparing the Workforce Starts Now
With seismic labor force shifts on the horizon, preparation must begin today to transition displaced workers and develop new skills. Some recommendations:
- Government training programs can provide workforce re-education in high-demand skills like software development, healthcare services, and renewable energy.
- Apprenticeships that combine class learning with on-the-job training are an effective way to create automation-ready workers. Germany‘s robust apprenticeship system is a model.
- Continuing education through community colleges, night schools, and online learning can help workers adapt existing skills or gain new ones.
- Businesses should provide on-site skills training workshops and transition assistance for employees whose roles change due to automation.
The mass adoption of automation could significantly worsen inequality if governments, businesses, and communities do not take proactive steps to protect displaced workers. But if properly managed, society can adapt to the future automated economy.
As an entrepreneurship consultant, I‘m advising small business clients on strategies to successfully integrate automation technologies while minimizing workforce disruption. The key is open communication, transition support, and continual skills development.
