The Great Return: How Many Workers are Coming Back to the Office?
The COVID-19 pandemic forced an unprecedented shift to remote work, with millions of employees suddenly logging on from home. But now, as vaccines roll out and case counts decline, many companies are grappling with how and when to bring workers back to the office. The "return to office" (RTO) question is complex, with significant implications for real estate strategies, workplace policies, and employee well-being.
So what do the numbers show about the current state of RTO? Let‘s dive into the latest statistics and trends.
The State of Play: Return-to-Office Trends in 2023
According to a survey by the Partnership for New York City, 82% of employers planned to implement a hybrid office model in 2023, with employees coming in a few days a week. Only 9% said they would require staff to return full-time.
However, the actual pace of RTO has been slower than anticipated. Data from keycard company Kastle Systems shows that office occupancy across 10 major U.S. cities was just 43.1% of pre-pandemic levels as of April 2023. That‘s up from a low of 14.6% in April 2020 but still far from a full recovery.
Several factors are influencing the sluggish return:
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Employee resistance: Surveys consistently show that most workers who can work remotely want to maintain flexibility. A January 2023 Pew Research poll found that 61% of employees who have a workplace outside the home prefer to work from home all or most of the time. Many have grown accustomed to the lack of commute and improved work-life balance.
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Productivity concerns: While some executives worry prolonged remote work will harm innovation and company culture, data suggests employees have remained productive at home. An Owl Labs study found that 62% of workers reported being more productive working remotely. Companies are weighing these gains against the benefits of in-person collaboration.
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Health and safety: Despite vaccine progress, ongoing pandemic uncertainties make some employees hesitant to return, especially in areas with lower vaccination rates or higher case counts. Companies must navigate evolving health guidelines and implement robust safety protocols to ease concerns.
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Industry variations: RTO plans vary widely by sector based on work requirements. Industries with a high share of jobs that can be done remotely, like tech and finance, have been slower to return. According to CBRE data, office utilization rates in April 2023 ranged from 33% for tech firms to over 80% for the engineering and construction sector.
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Location differences: Occupancy rates also differ across cities and regions. Texas metros like Austin, Dallas, and Houston lead the pack at over 50% of pre-COVID occupancy as of April 2023, per Kastle Systems data, while San Francisco and New York lag at under 40%. Local regulations, commute times, and urban amenities all shape RTO dynamics.
Who‘s Coming Back? RTO Demographics Explored
Digging deeper into the data reveals notable splits in RTO attitudes and behaviors across worker demographics. Here are some key insights:
Generational Divides
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Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964) are the most likely to be back in the office full-time, with 40% working on-site 5 days a week as of February 2023, per a Future Forum survey. Many Boomers are in senior leadership roles and value face time.
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Gen X (born 1965-1980) are nearly evenly split between hybrid and fully remote work. According to Future Forum, 39% worked hybrid schedules while 37% were fully remote in February.
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Millennials (born 1981-1996) have the highest share of fully remote workers at 49% and the lowest share of full-time office workers at just 19%. As digital natives and the largest cohort in the workforce, Millennials are driving the push for flexibility.
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Gen Z (born 1997-2012) are more likely to embrace hybrid work, with 41% splitting time between home and office as of February. Many Gen Z workers started their careers during the pandemic and crave opportunities for networking and mentorship.
Role and Industry Variations
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Executives are nearly 2x as likely as non-executives to be working from the office 5 days a week, at 36% vs. 19% respectively, per Future Forum data. Many executives see value in leading by example and collaborating in-person.
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IT workers have proven highly effective at remote work, with 57% still fully remote as of February 2023. Tech giants like Google, Apple, and Microsoft have embraced hybrid RTO plans to balance employee preferences with innovation needs.
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Frontline workers in industries like healthcare, retail, hospitality, and manufacturing have far less ability to work remotely. 60% of frontline employees are working on-site full-time compared to just 31% of knowledge workers. Disability and Caregiving Status
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Workers with disabilities are more likely to want to stay remote, with 64% preferring to work from home compared to 58% of those without disabilities, per the January Pew survey. Remote work can offer greater accessibility and comfort.
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Employees with childcare or eldercare responsibilities also show a strong preference for remote work. 66% of workers with children under 18 want to work from home most of the time vs. 56% of non-parents. Eliminating the commute provides more family time.
The Productivity Question: Is Remote Work = Less Work?
One of the top concerns cited by executives reluctant to embrace remote or hybrid models is a potential drop in productivity. But what does the data actually show?
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A Stanford study of 16,000 workers over 9 months found that working from home increased productivity by 13%. This increase was attributed to more calls per minute attributed to a quieter environment and more minutes worked per shift due to fewer breaks and sick days.
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An Owl Labs survey of 2,050 full-time workers found that 70% were just as productive or more productive working remotely compared to in the office. Top reasons cited were fewer distractions and interruptions, a more comfortable work environment, and no commute.
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According to a PwC survey of 133 executives, 52% said average employee productivity improved during the pandemic, while only 21% reported a decline.
However, some studies suggest prolonged remote work could harm certain types of productivity:
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A study of Microsoft employees published in Nature found that firm-wide remote work caused workers to spend 25% less time collaborating with colleagues outside their teams and to add fewer new collaborators. The researchers theorized this could slow innovation over time.
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An analysis of 61,000+ Microsoft employees found that company-wide remote work led to static, siloed communication networks. Employees communicated less frequently with weak ties (people they didn‘t know well) and spent more time with close collaborators. This lack of "bridge ties" could limit information-sharing and ideation.
The takeaway? Remote work can boost short-term, individual productivity but may come at the cost of long-term, collective innovation. The ideal solution for many companies will be a hybrid model that balances independent work with intentional in-person collaboration. Tracking output and results rather than just hours logged will also be key.
The Anywhere Office: Reimagining the Workplace for Flexibility
As RTO rates lag and hybrid work cements itself, companies are fundamentally rethinking the purpose and design of the physical office. No longer just a place for solitary work, the office is becoming a hub for teamwork, collaboration, and relationship-building.
According to CBRE data, 73% of companies plan to adopt a hybrid work model long-term. As a result, 52% expect to reduce their office space, 38% plan to shift to hot desking, and 45% will add more collaboration areas.
Innovative new workplace concepts and technologies are emerging to support this shift:
- Collaboration hubs with high-end video conferencing equipment to connect on-site and remote workers
- Unassigned seating and reservation systems to manage more dynamic space needs
- Algorithms that help determine who should come into the office when for optimal teamwork
- Asynchronous collaboration and project management tools to support flexible schedules
- Virtual whiteboards and interactive displays to enhance hybrid brainstorming sessions
- Biophilic design and outdoor workspaces to boost employee wellbeing
- Satellite offices and co-working spaces to reduce commutes and expand talent pools
Examples abound of companies boldly reimagining their workplaces:
- Dropbox has converted its headquarters into "Dropbox Studios", with a focus on collaboration space and no individual desks.
- Google is piloting "Team Pods" that allow groups to reserve flexible spaces for on-site collaboration days.
- LinkedIn is testing a "de-densified" office concept with more room for social distancing and an emphasis on mutual understanding between remote and in-office employees.
The post-pandemic office won‘t just have fewer people; it will be designed and scheduled with intention to make the most of those in-person interactions. Offices will need to earn commutes and compete with the comforts of home. The companies that create magnetic, productive workplace experiences will win the talent war.
The Path Forward: Crafting a Winning RTO Strategy
As the data shows, the RTO journey is far from one-size-fits all. How can business leaders navigate this complex transition and craft a sustainable hybrid strategy? Here are some key principles:
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Prioritize flexibility and choice. A majority of employees want control over where and when they work. Rigid mandates risk attrition. Focus on setting clear performance expectations and letting teams figure out the right mix of on-site and remote work.
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Rethink the role of the office. Offices should be redesigned to support the activities that happen most effectively in person – collaboration, socializing, learning and development. Individual space should take a back seat to team space.
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Communicate early and often. Developing and rolling out RTO plans requires extensive change management. Start by surveying employees to understand their needs and concerns. Provide transparent timelines and criteria for key decisions. Check in frequently to monitor sentiment and adjust course as needed.
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Double down on culture and connection. Be intentional about nurturing relationships and creating opportunities for organic interaction in a hybrid world. Invest in face-to-face events, virtual team-building, mentoring programs, employee resource groups, and tools that democratize access to leaders and information.
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Embrace experimentation and iteration. There is no playbook for hybrid work. The key is to start small, measure outcomes, and adapt based on feedback. Empower teams to pilot new norms and technologies. Share learnings and best practices across the organization.
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Level the playing field. With some employees in the office and others at home, power imbalances can quickly arise. Combat proximity bias by establishing virtual-first meeting norms and evaluating performance based on results rather than face time. Ensure all voices are heard regardless of location.
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Prioritize well-being and boundaries. Support healthy habits and work-life harmony in a hybrid environment. Encourage breaks, avoid after-hours communications, provide wellness resources, and model balance. Trust employees to get their work done in the ways that work for them.
The Big Picture: Hybrid Work as Competitive Advantage
The companies that embrace the RTO challenge as an opportunity to reinvent work will be the ones that thrive in the new normal. By harnessing the best of both virtual and in-person collaboration, they can tap into wider talent pools, boost engagement and performance, and build more agile teams.
The data is clear: flexible work is here to stay. Over 80% of employees now consider hybrid work a key benefit, and nearly 40% would take a pay cut to maintain location flexibility, per a 2022 survey by Owl Labs. A thoughtful, employee-centric RTO strategy will be critical to attracting and retaining top talent moving forward.
Ultimately, the goal should be to create a workplace that empowers people to do their best work – wherever that may be. With the right mix of flexibility, intention, and innovation, the post-pandemic office can be a source of meaning, connection, and competitive advantage. The future of work is ours to shape.
Sources:
- CBRE 2022 Global Occupier Sentiment Survey
- PwC US Remote Work Survey
- Partnership for New York City Return to Office Survey
- Kastle Systems Back to Work Barometer
- Owl Labs State of Remote Work 2022
- Future Forum Q1 2023 Pulse Survey
- Pew Research Center Survey 2023
- Microsoft Work Trend Index
- Stanford Study on Remote Work Productivity
- Nature Human Behaviour Study on Remote Collaboration
- CBRE Occupier Sentiment Survey on Workplace Strategy